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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Over 15 years, it's returned about 17% a year, nearly 23% over the recent three years as the world has got excited about AI and this new technology.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

What does 17%, that 15-year track record, mean?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It means that roughly every four or five years, if you'd put your money in the NASDAQ, it would double.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Not adjusted for inflation, but just in sort of nominal terms, it would double.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

That's pretty punchy.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

With that punchiness comes some volatility.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Prices on the NASDAQ bounce up and down.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Nothing in life comes for free.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You get the return of the NASDAQ.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You get a pretty excitable stock index.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So if you buy an index like a NASDAQ, which you can do in many different ways, you get a bit of diversification and every single company in that index is a public company subject to the governance and reporting of public companies.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And if you bought that index, it's immediately liquid.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You can take your profits and losses whenever you like.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You know, you could sell when it's a bit high so you could go off and treat yourself to whatever you fancy.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Private companies can't sell their shares.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You can't sell those shares as easily.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They are somewhat illiquid and they don't have the same infinite information rights or governance controls as you're forced to do on the public markets.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So all of that should add what would consider a risk premium.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You know, you can't be buying open AI when you could be buying the NASDAQ because, you know, you get the benefits of that diversification and sort of public governance.