Azeem Azhar

17% is not enough.

It's got to be much more than that.

It's got to be, I don't know,

in the case of this 20, 25%.

So what's going on in OpenAI today is that there's this secondary sale that's allowing insiders to sell about $10 billion of shares reported at a $500 billion valuation.

Now, if I recall correctly, the last time the company raised money, it was at $300 billion.

So that's a big step up.

And within all of that,

OpenAI is quite a complex beast.

It has this relationship with Microsoft that involves licensing the technology.

It involves distribution on Azure, which is Microsoft's cloud platform.

And OpenAI has to share right now 20% of its gross revenues with Microsoft.

through to 2030.

Now, OpenAI has indicated they want to push that down to about 10% by the end of this decade.

So you have this very complicated, complicated, but a little bit unique setup that has with it a bunch of risks.

You know, what if that relationship really doesn't work out?

If we think about that benchmark discussion, you know, you put your money somewhere else.

To match NASDAQ over five years, that 17% return,

coming in at $500 billion would imply you'd need a trillion dollars at the end of 2030.

But that's just to match a longstanding stock index.