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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Now that's not as much as Instagram for sake of argument, but it's about the same level as YouTube and higher than Snapchat, both really sticky, well-loved apps.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So there's scale there that is creating noise and occupying headspace.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But of course, you can't say scale and think about chat GPT without thinking about the grammar of scale that is involved, those large language models, those scaling laws, the increasingly large, voracious demand for compute and for chips, the bigger and bigger data centers.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

The numbers are so big, hundreds of billions of dollars, they seem to tower over the debate like a skyscraper.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But in a way, that hides what else is going on.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

As some of you may remember, OpenAI launched GPT 4.5.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

It was a new foundation model replacing GPT-4 that they put out soon after ChatGPT, and 4.5

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

was kind of a flop.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

It was an attempt to do a big model.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

We didn't really like it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

It sort of fell a bit flat.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But what OpenAI did and what the researchers did is they found a new approach.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

They found that approach of reasoning, that's thinking at inference time, the point at which you or I might put a query into the chatbot.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And those reasoning models, 01, 03, 04,

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

performed really, really well.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I think it was a real milestone moment in how an emerging technology starts to improve.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Now, if you've used Gemini Pro, which Google released an update to a few days ago, it really feels like there's something going on beyond either the reasoning model approach or the large language model.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Of course, Gemini Pro is using both of those techniques.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But it feels like there's a new technology sitting behind that because Gemini 3 is really well grounded in the complexities of the real world.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And perhaps that's a hint to the kind of world model that Demis Hassabis has alluded to.