Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And of course, in the detail that you forget when you just read the summary is a detail that did catch me out.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
So there are some behaviors that we have found to be perhaps, you know, a little bit more effective.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
Slow yourself down, make sure you're reading, but you need to have a certain...
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
culture and i think that a lot of businesses a lot of american businesses really you know they're thinking about short-term productivity they are thinking about volume being more valuable than that insight and that that depth would you be able to see in your data whether anyone was designing around around this or are we just going to see this quarter by quarter optimization
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
You've caught me out as well because I can now explain the mistake I made.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And it does absolutely, as you rightly say, relate to this question of long-run growth.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And it was fundamentally about, just to remind the audience who are not up on neo-indulgent growth theory on a Thursday morning, just take us to where that is.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
This is economists trying to figure out how economies grow and
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
Until the early 90s, there was a sense that you needed capital and labor.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And then amazingly, from somewhere, like a deus ex machina and a Greek play, technology would appear.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And that didn't reflect our intuitions because we sort of know that
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
that we make the technologies and countries that have good human capital and institutions make the technology.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
So where does that come from?
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And that's the idea of endogenous growth, that it just sort of arises from investments and interactions and incentives in the economy.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
So Romer writes this great paper in, I think, 1990, 91 or something.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
He gets a Nobel Prize quite rightly a few years later.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
But one of the challenges that emerged in the 20 years after that was that we weren't seeing productivity, total factor productivity, grow exponentially in a way that you might in certain types of endogenous growth.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
And the argument seemed to be that, and I'm just, Peter, if I'm giving this summary to listeners wrongly, you should jump in.
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
The argument seemed to be that
Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Anthropic’s Head of Economics on AI adoption data, Claude Code, the burden of knowledge & the next generation of experts
The human researchers were just adding knowledge to an already enormous stock of knowledge.