Ben Carlson

speaker

1,555 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 11 Jun

Ben Carlson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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And then so the next three decades, if you would have invested right in 1989 at the top, you were underwater.

And that's the thing people throw in your face.

How can you be a long-term investor if a situation like this exists?

To me, I don't think that showing exceptions to the rule necessarily invalidates the rules.

I think you have to understand those situations and help guide your actions a little bit.

The outliers do exist.

But I don't think you can say that a situation like that totally invalidates.

Because guess what?

The rest of the world did just fine after Japan peaked.

Japan was pulling up the rest of the world in the 80s.

If you look at any of the returns, foreign stocks did much better than US stocks, mainly because of Japan.

But the rest of the world, if you would have diversified, did just fine after Japan.

And actually, the long-term returns in Japan are much better than they think.

You just have to go back further.

It's just a really long mean reversion.

You got like 22% per year from 1970 to 1989 in Japan.

Small caps in Japan did 30% per year for two decades.

It's insane.

The returns almost had to be poor after that.

If you put them together, the boom with the bust, it's like almost 9% per year.

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