Ben Carlson

speaker

1,555 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 11 Jun

Ben Carlson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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The Rational Reminder Podcast · Ben Carlson: Investing at All-Time Highs | #412 · 4 Jun 2026 podcast

You can try to make them safer in some ways you can, but it just shifts the risk elsewhere.

We've probably put that left tail of the Great Depression off.

What does that mean?

Does it mean, I don't know, did people require higher returns in stocks back then because you could have that situation?

Or are we setting ourselves up for complacency and other bigger risks down the line?

I don't know the answer to that question, but I think risk doesn't always just completely magically disappear.

It just kind of goes somewhere else.

Yeah, you're right.

So the valuations probably had to be lower back then to get people to invest because they didn't want to as much.

You look at the long term chart after the Great Depression, you're like, I'm not going to buy this.

Look at how much pain there is in there.

Yeah, I talked about the two different types of bear markets in the book.

It's interesting that 2022 period was a non-recessionary bear market to a T. Those periods tend to be the magnitude of the fall is not as great.

It's like an average, like a 25% fall down in bear markets that happen outside of recession.

And during recession, it's like 40% or so of a downturn.

Those recessionary ones last a lot longer.

But I think it is also instructive to know that there's a decent number of bear markets that occurred outside of a recession.

where there's another reason where the stock market fell, whether it's investors freaking out or earnings, and sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong.

But it's not like those situations just happen when there's a recession.

We haven't had a real recession in the US really since the great financial crisis.

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