Ben Carlson

speaker

1,555 appearances 4 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2026 last heard 11 Jun

Ben Carlson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.

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And all the magazine covers at the time were talking about how Japan is taking over the US as the dominant economic power.

It didn't happen, obviously.

It just goes to show you that anyone can get caught up in something like that.

That's a conservative culture of people.

That doesn't do this kind of thing.

And they got caught up in it and they had, they like suspended their disbelief and just like allowed themselves to dream.

Like what if this is just this new paradigm and Japan's taking over the world?

Yeah, you just have to go like really long-term mean reversion.

And I wanted to finally like put the now-show-Japan thing to rest.

So I looked at it.

It's like 1% or 2% per year since 1990 for Japanese stocks, which is obviously terrible.

That's like a really buy and hold.

But it was 22% and change from 1970 to 1989.

So if you just mash those two together...

you get 8.7% annual returns over the past 55 years or whatever.

So actually the long term, it kind of bears out to many of the other stock markets, not that much worse.

The returns were so compressed in such a short period of time that afterwards they had to be terrible.

That's the problem.

It was extreme mean reversion.

Their housing prices on an inflation-adjusted basis are still below where they were in 1989 as well.

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