Ben Udy

And people got out and started spending, if anything, more aggressively.

And so prices have done really well in lots of developed economies, but Australia certainly.

we had been forecasting that prices were going to fall for quite a while now but we thought that those house price falls were going to start in say january 2023 very early in 2023 because typically house prices start to fall around six months after the rba starts to hike interest rates as you probably know the rba started hiking interest rates last month in may

We thought, you know, add on six months, it should be around the end of this year or early next year that prices start to fall.

But that's not been the case.

Prices have already started to fall in part, I think, because banks have anticipated the extent of interest rate rises and that's starting to feed into mortgage rates.

And so we saw house prices across Australia's eight capital cities fall on average for the first time since 2020 at least.

And we're expecting prices will continue to fall over the rest of this year and for quite a while throughout most of 2023.

Over the next six months or so, I think we expect roughly a 5% fall in prices.

As I say, the downturn is going to continue well into 2023 and probably the falls in the next six months or so are going to be smaller than the falls next year.

As the RBA continues to hike interest rates, the downward pressure on prices is going to intensify