Benedict Evans
speaker
941 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2025
last heard May 2025
Benedict Evans’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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I mean, the models have keep getting better.
We've shifted from pre training to post training.
We keep they keep getting better, but not in a way that would make you say, Oh, well, obviously now we're going to the moon.
It's just they carried on improving.
The thing that's become very clear if it wasn't clear a year ago is that the models themselves are sort of commodities in that, you know, there's half a dozen people who have a state of the art model.
I mean there's a bit of sort of difference in emphases, but you the models themselves seem to be commodities.
So there's an interesting kind of split in that like you could say that Anthropic and Claude and ChatGPT are just as good as each other are indeed Gemini, but then go and look at the app store charts or look at Google Trends and see which one's getting used.
So there's an interesting sort of sort of there's some interesting kind of differences emerging.
Um, but yeah, we uh a year ago we didn't know if the scaling would continue.
We still didn't know if the scaling will continue.
And a lot of the questions you kind of could have asked in like the beginning of 2023 don't really have answers yet.
Um so I kind of struggle sometimes to say anything new to say.
Because you can talk about intellectual property, you can talk about the user interface problem, you can talk about how do you manage the error rate, you can, you know, you can make your list of a dozen questions.
And there's not very much that you would say that's different about those now to what you would have said in the kind of the spring of of twenty twenty three, at a kind of a high kind of conceptual sort of product strategy level.
On the other hand, I mean the the way that I'm I'm I'm I'm sort of thinking about this now is is like there's kind of three things going on.
So there's all the model wards and the construction of models, which feels a bit like kind of Moore's Law.
And except except there's ten people doing it instead of one.
There's lots of acronyms and there's lots of papers and there's lots of people talking about ultraviolet this and water cooling that and data center the other thing and a hundred billion dollars.
And like if you're not actually in that world, all you really need to know is the models get better and more expens and building a model gets more expensive, but the cost of using the model gets cheaper.
It's kind of like looking at the front of a PC magazine in the midnight mid nineties, you know, like we group test which of the three hundred four eight six PCs should you buy?
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