Benjamin Felix
speaker
5,943 appearances
22 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2026
last heard 5d ago
Benjamin Felix’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 22 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 5.
Appearances
I can't tell you how many times I've had people ask whether they should do something, get out of the market, get into the market, delay investing the cash they have or whatever due to some economic headline or some economic expectation.
Like the war or the recession or whatever.
The other side of this is that investors will look at a sector like AI today, it's been pretty turbulent, or a country like China 15 years ago is another really interesting example.
They'll look at those things and just imagine how much economic growth there is going to be, and they'll infer from that expectation, that economic growth expectation that high stock returns are going to follow, and therefore they want to invest in that thing.
Now, I don't
I don't know what the future of AI investment returns are going to be, but investing in China 15 years ago, despite its incredible economic growth, has not gone very well for investors.
We've talked about this in past episodes.
The problem is that the stock market is not the economy.
The stock market is pricing forward-looking expectations, which include economic expectations, but stock prices represent expected future cash flows.
Generated by real businesses.
By the time you're reading about economic news or economic headlines, hearing about the growth potential of a market or an industry, it is highly likely that those growth expectations are already reflected in stock prices.
And historically, if you look at the data on this, it's been true at both the industry level and the country level.
You can have massive industry growth without incredibly high stock returns.
You can have shrinking industries like railways or a good
example where the industry has gotten smaller, but the stock returns have been very, very good.
The same thing at the country level.
And there's good data on this too, where the countries with the highest economic growth tend to counterintuitively produce lower average stock returns.
It's not a statistically significant finding, but like we can say pretty confidently that there's not a relationship.
Not necessarily that there's an inverse relationship, but that there's not really a relationship.
it.
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