Bernard Hickey

speaker

288 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 12 Jul

Bernard Hickey’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Prosperity Project · Why mortgage rates don’t follow the OCR · 12 Jul 2026 podcast

more likely to be relatively relaxed about inflation and therefore not willing to put up interest rates in a hurry.

Yes.

The fun thing is that you can actually have an interest rate increase, which is described as a dovish hike.

And that's what people said that we had last week was a dovish hike, that the interest rate was put up by 25 basis points, but then the commentary around that was quite cautious about whether there would be more interest rate increases.

Now, because of the schedule, this particular decision last week,

didn't involve a whole bunch of new forecasts.

It didn't involve the Reserve Bank saying what their preferred or their forecast track or forecast for the official cash rate was.

We didn't get one of those this time.

So it was a bit more difficult for the Reserve Bank to communicate what they thought was going to happen.

So people had to do a bit more reading between the lines.

And the reading between the lines on the statement and the news conference from the governor was, yes, they hiked interest rates, but they didn't talk very hawkishly about future interest rates.

So that's why it was described as a dovish hike.

Oh, now you're talking my language.

Give me a good spreadsheet.

I go straight to the spreadsheet to see what the Reserve Bank's forecast track for the official cash rate is over the next two to three years.

And I always bring in my other spreadsheet from last time to see what their previous track was.

And then I can look at the lines and see whether the line's gone up or gone down below where it was before.

And typically, if the line's gone up, that's a hawkish sign.

They are increasing their forecast for the official cash rate track.

And if it goes down, that means they're less likely to see rate hikes.

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