Bill Roggio
Appearances
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, the developments in Yemen are interesting. So the Biden administration, as we discussed before, mainly targeted weapons systems things for the Yemeni in order to try to get the Yemenis to stop attacking international shipping. It didn't work. The Trump administration has taken a different tack. It's not only targeting weapons systems. It's going after individuals. And just today, the U.S.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Central Command, which is directing the strikes, targeted a fuel depot that is being used to provide, you know, that is to basically to fuel the Yemeni military. So this is but also targeting the leadership. I've seen reports Yemeni generals and colonels are starting to be identified as being killed. We didn't see this under the Biden campaign. We are seeing this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
under the trump campaign whether it'll work battle remains to be seen i think that the you know the houthis are just a small terrorist organization it runs a government it runs a military so it's a terrorist government um And so there's a lot of work to be done, but you have a far better chance to get them to stop attacks on international shipping than you did under the Biden administration.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
If you could call it a strategy of just targeting weapons systems that can be and were being replaced by both the Yemenis who manufacture them and the Iranians who supplied them.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I think a downside is, is you could see a Libya or a Syrian situation where you have a fractured Yemeni state, which you really essentially do now. But if the Yemeni government that we support is really very toothless.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
One of my concerns is that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula can reassert control, as it has done several times in the past, or that you get a situation where Al Qaeda is all of a sudden viewed as moderate, just as it is in Syria, where you have a specially designated global terrorist who leads a foreign terrorist organization who's become president and runs the government.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So of Syria, that you can have a situation like that. The problem is that I that I see with our foreign policy, and this is not a left or right or Republican or Democrat issue, but it's a Washington issue, is that we're always looking for someone to work with.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And in places like Yemen and Libya and Syria, there are really very few good actors or the ones that are good tend to be powerless or maintain very little power. So my concern is that this if the We replace the Houthis, or if we depose the Houthis, they could be replaced with another bad actor, and we could be convinced that they're good actors. That's exactly what happened in Syria.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We exchanged one bad leader, Assad, and replaced them with a terrorist. Is the situation better in Syria today than it was a year ago? I'd argue it's just as bad. It's just a different kind of situation.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
I completely agree. We absolutely should be taking out the Houthis. We should do everything. We just need to be, as you said, be pragmatic. Your case of Afghanistan is perfect. Right. When we the Taliban, we President Trump negotiated the Doha agreement with them that President Biden used to withdraw. And we're talking to the Taliban now.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We we took off the bounty, the $10 million bounty for Sir Juncker, one of the most horrible terrorists on this planet. He's responsible for the deaths and wounding of thousands of Americans in Afghanistan, tons of thousands of Afghans. He's with ties to Al Qaeda. So We may be good at deposing a regime. We just don't seem to have foresight. And you're absolutely correct.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We project our values upon people that really are our enemies. The Taliban are our friend. Ahmed al-Shara in Syria and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which he runs. They are not an ally, and yet we're treating them like one. And I hope we don't... you know, have followed similar steps in Yemen as we've done in Libya, right? Another basket case study of our failed follow through policy.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I just hope we don't do that again.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
I fall somewhere in the middle of interventionism and isolationism only because we're really bad at interventionalism, right? So... If we're going to intervene, we need to do it wisely. We need to understand our enemy. We need to understand the limitations of our allies and understand who they are as well and what their goals are.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And we shouldn't get involved like, you know, in retrospect, you know, deposing the Taliban. And then trying to prop up, as you mentioned, promote democracy in Afghanistan. That was a fool's errand. It should have been very clear from the very beginning. We should have had limited goals in Afghanistan. Instead, we had lofty goals. Same thing in Iraq.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Same thing in Syria, where we take a terrorist organization, the Turkestan People's Workers Party, which is a foreign terrorist organization responsible for killing tens of thousands of Turks and called on the Syrian Democratic Forces. Or I'm sorry, the Syrian Democratic Forces. There's nothing democratic about a Marxist terrorist organization. But again, it's another perfect case of projection.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
We need to be very careful. We can't ignore the world. We get things like 9-11 because we pretend that Afghanistan was fine and that Al-Qaeda wasn't a threat.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
um but you know again we just have to we need better leadership we need better expertise we need to get rid of the people in the state department in the department of defense that have these you know and it's again this isn't a left and a right issue there's a lot of ideological uh blinders on both sides of the aisle again they're project
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
their values and their vision of the world and in the Middle East and Africa and many places in the world, they do not share our values. And we have to be very careful when we decide to You know, when we when we're going to go into democracy and nation building.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So, again, I don't want to come off as being an isolationist, but, you know, when you get stuck somewhere in the middle there, you know, you have you really have no hope, especially in a place like Washington.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
well the trump administration i think is everyone should uh or should be very clear to everyone at this point really is looking to negotiate across the board in ukraine with russia um negotiate with the iranians negotiate with the syrians negotiate with the taliban idea with the taliban right we just had two american hostages released in exchange for the dropping of bounties
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I'm not surprised that President Trump believes that there's a lot of deals to be made out there. One of my concerns is that when you're dealing with the Putins and the Iranians of the world, they're not you're not dealing on a level playing field.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I do hope he understands that, that you can't trust the Iranians and you can't trust the Russians when it comes to negotiations with as far as Iran goes. Look, I've always been very skeptical that the Israelis can pull off a strike deal. against Iran's nuclear program without significant U.S. support.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
There's a lot that goes into hitting nuclear program like Iran's that's extensive with bunkers and facilities that are very deep underground, built in the mountains. It's not just fly a plane, drop a bomb and it's destroyed. You got to do Follow on strikes. You have to have search and rescue available. We go down. You got to be able to refuel those planes.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
You got to be able to get the air, get the clear to go over the Saudis and the Jordanian airspace, et cetera, et cetera. It's a very complicated. I don't think this is something the Israelis can do on their own. So if the Trump administration, you know, if they were going to carry it out. They need American support, both political and military support to launch an effective strike.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And they have to do it effectively. They're really going to get one shot at this.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
So I would say it's loose. The Iranians and its access of resistance, that includes Hezbollah, that includes the Iraqi and Syrian militias, that includes the Houthis, groups like Hamas. The Iranians are never going to ask these groups to do something. A, they don't believe, the Iranians don't believe that these groups can carry out, that includes the Houthis.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And if there's concern, so it's a back and forth. right the iranians have a good read on the capabilities of these groups what they can and can't get away with but if they're you know so if the the iranians are never going to order the houthis to do something but they can advise them they can encourage them they provide the weapons systems and the advisors so it's that sort of relationship and
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
As far as the Houthis go, this is one of the questions that I have. Are we dealing with a symptom of the disease or are we dealing with the cause? Striking at the Houthis, it's necessary. It's something we have to do. But if you really want the Houthis to stop... You hit the Iranians. You hit them hard. You make the Iranians pay.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
You kill their IRGC operatives that are advisors and building weapons systems within Yemen and other places. And you also show the Iranians that they're weak at home. You pick targets inside of Iran. That's the real weakness of the Iranians is... And that's why they have this access of resistance. They have groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah. Because it's the way of projecting power.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
But it also shows how weak they are. If they're shown to be weak at home, that is something that they can't tolerate. That is something that could really get them to force the Houthis and Hezbollah and Hamas to draw back. That could get the Iranians to order them. That's a situation where the Iranians feel they are truly threatened. These groups would comply with that.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
What do you make of all of that? I don't think the Trump administration is going to get what it wants and what it needs. The problem with our negotiations in the past is it's decoupled Iran's nuclear program with its support for these militias across the Middle East or that access of resistance. That was one of the big problems with the JPCOA.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
And I suspect that it's going to be a big problem with this. And also the Iranians. are going to try and run out the clock. They're going to string the U.S. along. They're going to say and do enough things to keep Trump advisors and particularly the State Department, which loves negotiations for the sake of negotiations. And that doesn't matter who is running the State Department.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
It doesn't matter if it's a Republican or a Democratic administration. The State Department likes to talk for the sake of talking. That's what they're paid to do.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah. I will say that the Trump administration does need to go through the process of talking to them. Right. I just hope they don't allow themselves. Absolutely. Right. They need to get to know and then do what it needs to do what they need to do. I just hope that they eventually recognize that they're being played.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, that's a great question. Honestly, it's all a matter of how President Trump wants to be perceived. Remember, he campaigned on no new wars. Now, striking at the Houthis is not a new war. It was an existing war. The Houthis were attacking U.S. warships, international shipping. So it was a continuation. So what he's doing, we can't proceed. Launching strikes on Iran would be perceived as such.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Does he want to go down that route? How desperate or how desirous is he of getting a deal to show that he's the dealmaker? Or how willing is he to walk away? You know, President Trump is it's very I find it. He's very uptight. He's the most typical person to read in Washington. You know, if this was the Biden administration, I could easily say a little talk for the sake of talking.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
This will be strung out. President Trump could on a drop of a dime. He could either he could say, I've had enough and it's time for us to deal with this problem meaningfully. Or he could say, well, we're just going to continue negotiations. So, yeah, unfortunately, I wish I had a better answer for you.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Yeah, absolutely. And look, there's been times in my career where I could give you a definitive answer. When President Biden announced the withdrawal from Afghanistan, I was the guy who created that map that showed the Taliban taking over. I said day one, the Afghan government will be lucky to make it out by the end of the summer. They collapsed on August 15th.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Some of these are very easy to answer. And some, especially when you're dealing with the best way, a mercurial leader like President Trump, it really depends on his mood and his vision. And again, I just can't get inside his decision-making loop, which is interesting. And by the way, in many ways, his unpredictability A lot of people view that as a negative. I view it as an asset.
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | April 19th, 2025: How Long Can The Tariff War Last & A Ground Campaign Coming In Yemen?
Our enemies and our adversaries have to look at that and say, you know, I'm not really sure about this guy. And we need to really consider whether we want to negotiate in good faith or not, or we want to conduct this type of attack, or we want to do this to raise the ire of President Trump. Yeah.