Bob Mondello

Film industry observers are pretty good at estimating how movies will do at the box office.

They crunch advertising, exit polls, social media reach.

But how do you crunch a publicity stunt?

Avatar Fire and Ash was always expected to lead Christmas week.

And Timothee Chalamet's ping-pong movie, Marty Supreme, It's only a matter of time before I'm staring at you from the cover of a Wheaties box.

was expected to fall in the middle of the also-rans.

Instead, it's leading the also-rans, at least partly because earlier this week, looking terrified, Chalamet climbed atop the 366-foot-high Las Vegas Sphere to yell, Marty Supreme is an American film that comes out on Christmas Day!

The sphere then lit up like a giant orange ping pong ball.

The stunt went viral online, and about a million people have already seen Marty Supreme.

Bob Mondello, NPR News.

The Avatar threequel is definitely dominating the weekend at cinemas.

But it's not hot enough to be setting records.

At $88 million for its first three days in North America and another $257 million overseas,

It's running more than 20% behind Avatar Way of Water two years ago.

Second place finisher David, which tells the biblical story of David and Goliath, will take in $21 million, the highest opening ever for a faith-based animated film.

And Timothee Chalamet's Marty Supreme will easily set this year's record for per-theater average, with more than $145,000 in ticket sales at each of its six theaters.

Bob Mondello, NPR News.

The Avatar prequel is definitely dominating the weekend at cinemas.

But it's not hot enough to be setting records.

At $88 million for its first three days in North America and another $257 million overseas,