Brad Setser
speaker
466 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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China's pattern of trade over the last six years.
China's imports of manufacturers increased on average by fifteen one five billion dollars a year, essentially nothing.
China's exports of manufacturers over the last six years.
Increased on average by $175 billion a year, ten times as much.
So China became an economy, particularly in response because of the way it responded to COVID, because of the real estate crisis that was exporting but not importing when it came to manufacturers.
And China's trade surplus surge.
To be in about uh a trillion is a little over a trillion dollars now.
About a percent of GDP world GDP is manufacturing surplus, is two percent of world GDP.
These are really unprecedented numbers.
And so, you know, my view was that hey, we don't have to abandon all the benefits of trade.
We can maintain the benefits of relatively integrated trade amongst like-minded, I guess that's not I don't like that term actually, amongst countries that have similar economic systems, similar politics.
And that that was a a better way.
of both putting pressure on China because the pressure's really on China, and also avoiding the costs that come from fully disengaging from the world economy.
I think the choice was made was essentially an American to go with an America alone.
Policy where we're gonna give up a lot of the benefits of trade with our neighbors and with longstanding friends.
And I think the net effect of that, yes, it's gonna put a lot of pressure on China.
Uh the tariffs on Vietnam are in some ways tariffs on indirect Chinese exports as well, but it does so at a very, very high cost.
And it it it sort of gives up the benefits that I thought the US had from being at the center of a much bigger
bigger block than China was going to be at the center.
We've kind of the vision here is at least shrinking to within North America and maybe shrinking to within the United States.
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