Brad Setser
speaker
466 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Apr 2025
Brad Setser’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
This doesn't turn out to be the glow the repeat of the global financial crisis.
It turns out to be a more ordinary trade war, maybe with a few Trumpian flourishes and maybe with a bit more revenue collection.
But if you
If the administration concludes that it overshot, that they are worried about throwing the US economy into a self-induced recession, that they don't have political support for this particular trade war and they want to back off, they they've left a little space to do quote unquote phenomenal deals.
And so if there are phenomenal deals done with China, with Europe, with Japan.
If there's some
Agreement that is reached with Mexico and Canada that rolls back some of the auto protection, which is actually significant in its own terms, even if the rest of well, not the rest, but even if m the consumer goods and non metal base part of North American trade is still relatively untariffed.
If you reach deals with them, reach deals with Southeast Asia, reach deals with the UK in
So forth and so on, you could generally perhaps fall back to something that's closer to a 10% tariff across the board, which is significant but not as disruptive.
And then whatever your deal with China leaves you with, you kind of play a trade war out with China using the 301 tool, and you really just focus on China.
So that that is the most plausible path towards de-escalation.
I think right now though, uh Joe's in luck, we're on a path where the president does seem fairly committed to
changing the fundamental structure of the US and North American economies.
And if you want to achieve that deep change through policy, you have to impose policies that are are disruptive and painful.
And so and other countries are going to react.
And the US basically is taking policy steps that on one hand risk throwing the US into recession and are almost certain to throw some of our major trading partners into recession.
And countries generally don't want to be pushed into recession by b policy choices made abroad.
So the natural reaction is going to be to try to.
Reduce your dependence on the US market.
Now that's really hard because the US is the only big, big, big country that runs really big deficits, I guess, along with the UK.
Showing 101–120 of 466 · page 6 of 24
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