Brian Arcese

speaker
73 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 20 Jul

Brian Arcese’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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What do you mean by that?
Well, in our minds, I mean, as you said during the introduction, we saw oil prices move up quite quickly as fighting began in Iran.
But we saw them move back down nearly as quickly or even more so than they had moved up.
And in our minds, that was prices moving much more quickly than the fundamentals were actually changing on the ground.
Things don't come back online as quickly as investors would hope, but certainly markets were pricing in that markets would return to the state of the world pre-conflict.
And in our minds, that's just likely to take much longer than at least what was previously priced in.
Correct.
Correct.
Exactly.
I mean, I think a lot of things were working towards putting a cap on oil prices and giving investors a
a bit of confidence that the market wouldn't become too seized.
I mean, China had really decreased imports.
The U.S.
and other countries around the world had released a significant amount from their respective strategic petroleum reserves.
And then also,
Though oil was obviously impeded from getting out of the Strait of Hormuz, there are and were a number of workarounds that really had allowed at least some of that capacity, somewhere between a third and half perhaps, to come out of the Gulf through other means, including through the Red Sea.
All of those, I mean, China does need to begin to import oil again.
We are getting to the lower end of the comfort range of how quickly countries would want to draw down their strategic petroleum reserves.
And then I think lastly, to be honest, workarounds through the Red Sea may or may not be available on a go-forward basis.
I think a lot is still in flux.
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