Brian Vendig

speaker

67 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2022 last heard Jul 2022

Brian Vendig’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Stock Market: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2022 · 5 Jul 2022 podcast

So one thing that's happening right now with the Fed is it's recognizing that we've made some policy mistakes.

possibly in the past, and now is focusing on making a strong effort to fight inflation moving forward.

And we've heard comments consistently from Chairman Powell and other FOMC voting members over the last several weeks.

So the Fed is most likely going to increase interest rates again.

And we think 75 basis points or 0.75% at the end of July.

Now, what that's done and what the Fed has done historically with that tool of increasing interest rate is trying to clamp down on demand.

Because when you have demand high and supply low, what happens?

Price goes up.

And that's exactly what we've seen in gas and food and other energy prices.

Now, I think from a consumer's perspective, it causes people to take a step back.

And just like the stock market or the economy feels like it's going through a great rebalance, well, so are we personally as well.

So I think people at home need to take a step back, look at the budgets, see how much are we saving or not saving every month.

Where are we going to find tradeoffs in choices that we make discretionary or things that we have to do on an ongoing basis?

And I think it also relates back to people making decisions about acquiring expensive items.

like a car, like a house, because the cost of borrowing money goes up when these rates go up.

So again, a lot of this is very interrelated, but I think what we're seeing is with the Fed increasing interest rates, it is causing the economy to slow.

We've seen that in the data over the last couple of months, but moving forward, that might not be a bad thing when you think about headline inflation numbers.

Well, I think in these types of environments, and we can definitely accurately measure volatility, we know these volatility levels are elevated to levels that we haven't seen almost like since the 08 financial crisis.

You don't want to make too many knee-jerk reactions because you might be missing opportunity.

But let's just take a step back and say, first of all,

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