Cabot Phillips

And it's worth noting,

Online prediction markets currently have the odds of U.S.

boots on the ground in Iran at 60% by April 30th.

Now, I know some people might roll their eyes when they hear that.

They don't really care about prediction markets, but they have been remarkably accurate at predicting all sorts of geopolitical events in the past year, including the initial start of the war itself.

So it is worth keeping an eye on.

Yes, it would.

Absolutely.

Yeah, as we speak, more U.S.

troops are heading to the Middle East.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon reportedly ordered the deployment of roughly 3,000 paratroopers from the Army's elite 82nd Airborne Infantry Division.

These are forces capable of parachuting in to hostile territory at a moment's notice.

They're often referred to as a rapid response force because of their ability to fully deploy within 24 hours.

Now, the Trump administration has not yet said where exactly they are going, and Trump has still refused to commit to boots on the ground.

But this deployment, no doubt,

puts extra weight behind his demand for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the U.K.

and France are reportedly close to finalizing plans to deploy naval vessels to protect commercial ships in the Strait from both mines and rocket attacks.

So at least some European allies appear to finally be answering Trump's call for aid.

Yeah, it's still unclear if direct negotiations have actually taken place yet or are even on the books to take place.