Caitlin Dickerson

Policy-wise, Trump is sort of riding the wave of legal restrictions to asylum that the Biden administration put into place.

So those numbers dropped precipitously even before the election.

And I think it's undeniable that the Trump administration is benefiting in terms of these low numbers from the public messaging campaign that they have going on right now.

I mean, there's this longstanding debate about whether deterrence works, whether imposing consequences, legal consequences, putting people into jail or deporting them can, in a significant way, decrease the number of people crossing the border.

I think that what the Trump administration is doing is going far beyond deterrence, right?

They're spreading this message of fear internationally and, frankly, conveying an image of the United States that doesn't make it look like the type of place that people want to seek refuge.

You know, the rule of law is a huge part of what makes the United States the most attractive country in the world for migration.

And when you turn on the news and you look at what's happening in the United States right now, it doesn't look like a place where the rule of law is still in effect or where the country is necessarily free to participate in basic democratic freedoms like voting and protesting.

There's a lot of violence in the streets right now.

And so I think that is having a significant impact on the number of people who are crossing the border.

You're not going to seek safety in a place that doesn't look very safe.

Exactly.

That's a good way of putting it, just to look at the standard for what asylum requires.

And that's why, you know, we're seeing people leave.

And we don't know the exact numbers of how many people have left the United States.

And we don't really have reason to believe that the 1.9 million number that the Trump administration is touting is accurate.

But I am hearing on a regular basis about people, especially people in so-called mixed status families where you have a mom or a dad who's undocumented and the rest of the family who are United States citizens who are deciding that it's no longer worth it to stay in the United States.

I think it's going to be years before we have a good sense of how many those people are.

But it does feel like the calculation is changing.

So operationally, it means a lot more boots on the ground.