Carl Hennigan

If he's saying it's 1% in Iceland and they're importing it in places like London, then that tells you it must be more than 1% in London.

It must be factors of 5, 10 out, our estimation of the current incidence.

It'd be far greater than what we consider.

If you just looked at the cases, we think there's only five, six thousand people got this infection.

In fact, right now it could be five, six million people have got it.

And that's the problem which John's pointing to.

We've got no idea what that denominator is.

And if we understood that, that might help us understand how much herd immunity we've got.

how many people get severe disease, and then how we have to prepare to manage them in the hospitals and ITU departments.

Can I have a shout out?

Can I have a shout out to all my colleagues who I'm talking to and dealing with who have school children?

And I'm aware Helen has one of them.

I was made aware today by Dave.

I know he won't say to me.

I've just I seem to have taught David Noonan's daughter about epidemiology, evidence based medicine and systematic reviews because he said she sat here for half an hour, sat on my knee listening to me while I'm talking away about this stuff.

Well, I could hear the screams coming through.

It's screams of joy.

So shout out for everybody who's in that situation.