Carl Weinberg

Hi, Tom.

Good morning.

Thanks for having me back on the show.

It's been a while.

You know, we're at full employment.

That's my assessment.

Anyhow, others might not agree with that.

But even at a four and a half percent unemployment rate, which I think, by the way, is going to go down in this morning's report and we'll get a revision tomorrow.

downward to the figure that we saw for November.

But when we're at full employment like this, the economy has trouble growing.

The only way it can grow is either by immigration or getting more people in the labor force or by increasing productivity.

So productivity was really strong in the third quarter.

The economy grew well.

Absolutely not.

I think Myron is wrong.

I think he's abusing and misinterpreting the Taylor rule and the estimates and the importance of our star within the Taylor rule.

Our star certainly has come down, but potential GDP has also come down, potential GDP growth.

So when you put the two together, there's no recommendation from the Taylor rule whatsoever.

or anything that I know about economics for the Fed to continue to cut rates with the economy at full employment.

I'm concerned about more inflation as 2026 progresses, because if the economy continues to grow, but it can't find the workers to make it grow, then we'll have too much income chasing too few goods, and that will put upward pressure on prices once again.