Casey Newton

We don't allow death markets, which is basically betting on the death or assassination of a public figure because that could incentivize someone to like go out and kill the person, for example, to claim the bounty.

So they are instituting these rules unilaterally for themselves.

But that seems like step one.

Yeah.

And I would like to see prediction markets become something closer to the vision that I heard back at that prediction markets conference years ago, which is like a way of sort of incentivizing the production of good knowledge.

I mean, one of the things that the proponents of prediction markets were saying is like right now we have polling for like public sentiment or elections and

And people are not incentivized to, like, go out and do their own polls because they think they can do a better job than Gallup or, you know, Ipsos or whoever the sort of polling organization is.

But if you have prediction markets where people are, like, incentivized to go out there, like, do their own polling, do their own research because it might help them make money, that's going to create, like, a more flourishing system.

And, like, I would just like to see that kind of thing happen.

But it seems, you know, like, what we're getting actually is just people just betting on the military operations that they're involved in.

Yeah.

I think I would put a high percentage probability mass on that.

Like, I think that at least when it comes to the obvious and flagrant abuses of like, say, a position in Congress or a position in the military where you have access to privileged information that is quite valuable on a prediction market, I would expect like just for national security reasons, they will do something about that.

Like you can't have members of the military betting on raids and operations in foreign countries.

Right.

Yeah.

You know, I have never bet on a prediction market.

Have you?

The fake ones.

Yeah.