Charlie McElligott
speaker
507 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard Jul 2025
Charlie McElligott’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Yes, there's a normalization dynamic with regards to where inflation is now.
We think Jerome Powell is already at two dots our you know for the end of the year.
And there's just this modest turn, but they're turning for a reason.
They're turning 'cause, you know, quits rates and claims, you know, are starting to get a little wonky.
And as I said, the whole American economic miracle goes wrong when the consumer cracks.
And the consumer cracks is what, you know, becomes of you know the labor market.
And and that's starting to look um, you know, precarious at best.
So I think I don't think it's gonna be a tariff headline necessarily.
I think it's gonna be, you know, good old fashioned data, a nasty NFP print, you know, that type of a thing.
Um is that an acute risk now?
Probably not.
Probably, you know, safe to say, you know
within by August, um, you know, we could be getting spicy and I think there's real delta, not just of like the first cut in September, but, you know, if that happens, you know, it's not just gonna be, you know, twenty five bips, right?
So
Do your duty.
You know, it goes back to those, you know, kind of counterintuitive observations that we started off with, you know, where you get so fixated on the like the left side that, you know, perversely the corporate spending uncertainty becomes the biggest source of demand for stocks.
Yeah.
You know, um and especially to the market structure stuff, which is just what I always come back to.
Like once those puts start roasting because the worst case scenario doesn't happen and dealers gotta start buying back that short delta and then people start squeezing that short delta as the market starts rallying back and start buying short dated calls and dealers get short those calls and we go short gamma the other way.
You know, th those flows and you know, frankly, you know, a world of
Showing 221–240 of 507 · page 12 of 26
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