Charlie McElligott
speaker
507 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard Jul 2025
Charlie McElligott’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And we talked that last August shock about the idea that the concept of a carry trade, because we were being asked about oh, the carry unwind, which is kind of like this false narrative.
But the idea of any sort of carry trade or positioning high sharp ratio trade, right?
A high risk adjusted return, is that you need a period of low volatility.
To kind of aggregate that position, to build that leverage into the trade because it keeps working.
The vol is low, the price keeps working higher.
That builds the leverage in the system.
Yeah.
That hence builds the risk, right?
Stability breeds instability.
In this case, Donald Trump, even if the market was misidentifying the macro of his policies at the time, which we should talk about.
Oh,
Well, in this case, starting November, yeah, you know, when it really took shape, and I think the market had been sensing certainly since kind of the summer.
Skew is steepening.
Skew matters, right?
Just as a relative measure of kind of demand for downside versus demand for upside.
Put skew, which is like deep out of the money downside relative to at the money put, was jacked 90 something percentile because of all of the potential chaos agents.
So
Vall was already quite expensive going into this scenario, even if maybe the macro catalyst went wrong way.
And I think there's two big things that happened.
So let's talk about this past week, or really it was past three weeks.
Showing 321–340 of 507 · page 17 of 26
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