Chris Camillo

speaker

3,317 appearances 5 recordings 2 series first heard May 2025 last heard 13 Sep

Chris Camillo’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 2.

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I would have kept rolling it for a few more weeks.

If I i i if I had confidence that there was a trigger event that week that gave me a meaningful probability of winning on the trade.

Okay.

So like I can't say this with confidence now.

I'd have to like assess the trade

at that moment in time.

But the Amazon earnings call was a big event.

Like it was a meaningful event.

Which is why I say there was an eighty percent chance of me hitting the trade.

And that means you're wrong overall.

I I hate the gambling analogy because gambling means so many things to so many different people.

Again, it all starts with what your objectives are and what your risk tolerance is.

And on top of that, you have to understand that I do excessive amounts of probability analysis.

So I essentially run through every theoretical scenario on that trade that could happen, that I'm aware of.

I look through every scenario, good and bad.

and I make an assessment on how likely each scenario is to play out.

Based on actual research.

In this case, over a hundred hours of deep research at Amazon.

And you're playing probabilities.

So I guess theoretically, everything in life is a gamble, if you want to look at it like that.

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