Chris Stokes
speaker
14 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2012
last heard Jan 2012
Chris Stokes’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
So what government is forecasting in its latest evaluation of HS2 is that traffic will double by 2037.
And the key question is where these people are going to come from.
A lot of it is actually what's called generated travel, where if you provide a better service, more people will travel.
But will that actually happen between Birmingham and London, Manchester and London or Glasgow and London?
I'm not convinced of that.
And the parallel is with HS1.
It was forecast that Eurostar would carry 25 million passengers a year by 2011, but actually it's 9 to 10 million.
That's less than 40% of the forecast.
50% of the benefits to passengers are related to journey time savings, of which 74% relate to business travellers, although only 30% of passengers round you are forecast to be
travelling on business.
The assumption is that the time of business passengers is very valuable, and actually the assumption is they don't work on trains, which I think anyone who travels on trains at business times will know is not the case.
So £10 billion of the total benefits relating to time savings for passengers are, I think, very questionable.
The spoof draw that you had at the beginning of the piece had the numbers 1 to 6 coming out in order.
The likelihood of getting six consecutive numbers picked out in order is much lower than the likelihood of getting six consecutive numbers picked out in a random order.
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