Clay Bavor
speaker
1,248 appearances
2 recordings
2 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 4 Jul
Clay Bavor’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 2.
Appearances
You're obviously correct that as the open weights models become more capable, the set of things they can do grows larger.
The set of things where all else being equal, if they are much less expensive, that you would want to point a frontier model becomes smaller.
But again, I think we're not imagining just how high the ceiling is in terms of demand for frontier intelligence.
Invention, discovery, building new products, building new services.
I think it's hard to get your mind around when you have intelligence that can work around the clock to invent, to build, to discover how you would use that and how much of it you could use.
You missed one thing in there, which is a large amount of token use is driven by reasoning models now, thinking out loud to themselves.
And I think actually one of the most underrated developments of the past few years was the O1 model from OpenAI in late 2024, where
If you recall, there was a chart that showed, okay, test time compute or amount of inference done, amount of thinking out loud and performance, and it just keeps going up and to the right.
It's logarithmic, so it starts to level out.
But what it effectively demonstrated is if you have enough time and compute, the model will be that much smarter.
So as for what happens with token economics,
I think there are many drivers underneath it.
One is you're going to end up with hardware that is able to produce more tokens at equivalent cost.
And so kind of the cost of the inputs, so to speak, will go down.
We talked about I think you'll have this migration of certain workloads to open weights models.
I think one of the drivers that's hard to predict how it will play out across both the open weights models and the frontier models is just the availability of compute.
And it's classic economics.
It's microeconomics 101.
supply, demand, if you have unbounded demand for frontier level intelligence or GPUs to run open weights models and the rate limiter is the number of Blackwells and H100s you have, you end up with a floor on the cost of tokens because you've got to pay for the energy, you've got to pay for the compute.
I believe that.
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