Dan Egan
speaker
94 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2018
last heard Oct 2020
Dan Egan’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
More people die from mosquitoes than ever die of sharks or tigers, even though we worry a lot more about sharks and tigers.
So remember to focus on the things that are actually going to get you.
Oh, definitely not.
You know, thinking through what is required to have the election results drive a big volatility or even loss or gain in your portfolio requires a number of things.
The first is that there needs to be some sort of dramatic impact by the new president on the economy and the stock market.
And generally, we've seen that there's no immediate ability to juice returns to change immediate economic impacts on the basis of who's president.
The second component of it is that there needs to be a big difference between the candidates and their platforms or their policies, their ability to really move the economy quickly.
Once again, there's not a dramatic difference between these two candidates in terms of their economic policies and the short-term impact on the economy or markets.
And the last one, which I think is the most important, is that it would have to be a surprise.
It would need to be something that markets didn't see coming.
And markets are very, very hard to surprise, at least in terms of things that are going to move the market.
Let's go back to 2016.
Coming into Election Day, Hillary Clinton had about an 80% probability of winning.
So it was a surprise that Trump won back in 2016.
We still didn't see dramatic moves in markets the next day.
So the set of things that need to happen in order for a presidential election to really cause any dramatic volatility is substantial.
Now, the caveat there is what if there is not a clear victor for a long time?
What if it's disputed?
So I think a good way of putting it is that the stock market doesn't care who wins as long as it's clear that somebody did win.
I think we far overestimate how much impact the elections ever have on stock markets.
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