Dan Ivascyn

I think the problem is when you have a lot of AI euphoria going on, when you've had a period where we haven't had, you know, a loss cycle in a long time, um,

you can create the illusion of safety just because those types of assets haven't moved around a lot in the past.

Yeah.

And of course, you do get the current coupon.

So, you know, again, I'm like a.

a ai stock or vc stock or some of the names that are out there that are doing real well there you know you buy it and then you hope you can sell it to someone at a higher price in the future on some of the riskier areas of this market um a lot of times you are getting a 10 yield or 12 coupon that creates some stability because once i get that get that coupon you can't take it away from me either so you know we do think that as um

a form of maybe equity replacement or as an alternative to equities at these very high valuations you can carefully move into some of these areas of the market in the higher yielding riskier space and generate good value let's let's stay on that equity high valuations uh dan can i have chart six

Yeah, so first of all, we picked a chart.

As you know, there's 10 different ways we could have essentially communicated the same thing.

Just, well, I don't even know which one this is here.

This is probably, this is a Schiller article.

a Shiller PE that's just being graphed here.

Yeah, basically what this says is if you smooth earnings or if you adjust earnings and then compare what you have to pay for stocks based on this assumption, they're very, very expensive and they're near the most expensive they've been relative to bonds in many, many years.

Now,

Again, you can look back at the last time this stuff got real expensive.

And you'll notice it's expensive today.

It can get a little bit more expensive.

Those were the years leading up to the internet bubble bursting.

So I say this, and it'll sound more alarmist than I intend.

And one way you poke hole in these charts is you say, OK, well, yes, under these types of longer-term valuation metrics, equities look expensive.