Dan Ivascyn

But if these tech companies are leading equity markets and their earnings growth is

you know, double digits for the next few years, you can justify these valuations.

Correct.

And that's why these types of relationships aren't great as a trading signal to say, OK, all of a sudden short the market.

And then they also get into concentration type risks where for the average investor, you know, you're getting a point now where because the tech stuff's gone up so much, you need to go out there and find diversification.

And, you know, you can shift around these metrics depending on what what equities you're looking at.

But I think the bottom line is when you look at these starting valuations and then you look at subsequent returns over a five or 10 year period.

And you go all the way back to like the late 1800s.

Not great.

And in fact, quite negative relative to the starting point for yields.

But again, this time could be different.

It does feel a little bit different, but I think the point is that, you know,

It's been a bad period for bonds.

They've generated almost no return after inflation for 15 years.

Stocks have just steadily gone higher.

And in theory, you get to a point where, and we strongly believe that, valuations have shifted to a point where the next five to 10 years are probably going to be different.

And on the fixed income side, you earn your yield.

You don't know what it is after inflation.

You don't know what it is if it's in a different currency.

But in high-quality bonds, it's fairly simple in that you start with a yield, a boring index.