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Daniel Kokotajlo

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
617 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Good luck convincing them to slow down.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Okay, and then there's distributing political power if there's an intelligence explosion.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

From the perspective of...

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

the welfare of citizens or something, one idea we were just discussing a second ago is how should you do redistribution?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

It seems from right now, the president could go to Larry Summers or Jason Furman or something.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And just ask, hey, are tariffs a good idea?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Is even my goal with tariffs best achieved by the way I'm doing tariffs?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And they'd, like, get a pretty good answer.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

But just to riff on proscriptive ideas...

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

There's one thing where we try to protect jobs instead of just spreading the wealth that automation creates.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Another is to spread the wealth using existing social programs or creating new bespoke social programs where Medicaid is some double digit percent of GDP right now.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And you just say, well, Medicaid should continue to stay 20 percent of GDP or something.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And the worry there is.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

selfishly from a human perspective is you'll get locked into the kinds of goods and services that Medicaid procures rather than the crazy technology that will be around, the crazy goods and services that will be around after AI world.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And another reason why UBI seems like a better approach than making some bespoke social program where you make the same dialysis machine in the year 2050 even though you've got ASI or something.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Okay, we've been talking about what we're going to do about people.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

The thing worth noting about the future is that most of the people who will ever exist are going to be digital.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And...

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Look, I think factory farming is, like, incredibly bad.