Daniel Kokotajlo

Even then...

There's been a lot of theories in history which have had this idea of some class is going to get together and unite against the other class.

And in retrospect, whether it's the Marxist, whether it's people who have some gender theory or something, the proletariat will unite or the females will unite or something.

They just tend to...

think that certain agents have shared interests and will act as a result of the shared interest in a way that we don't actually see in the real world.

And in retrospect, it's like, wait, why, why would all the proletariat like, so why think that this lab will have these AIs who are like, there's a million parallel copies and they all unite to secretly, um, uh,

conspire against the rest of human civilization in a way that, even if they are deceitful in some situations.

Okay, so we've been talking about this very much from the perspective of zoom out and what's happening on these log-log plots or whatever.

But 2028 superintelligence, if that happens, what is your sort of... The normal person, what should their reaction to this be?

Sort of, I don't know if emotionally is the right word, but in sort of their expectation of what their life might look like, even in the world where there's no doom.

What do you think of the balance of power idea of slowing down the leading, if there is an intelligence explosion like Dynamic, slowing down the leading companies so that multiple companies are at the frontier?

Good luck convincing them to slow down.

Okay, and then there's distributing political power if there's an intelligence explosion.

From the perspective of...

the welfare of citizens or something, one idea we were just discussing a second ago is how should you do redistribution?

Yeah.

It seems from right now, the president could go to Larry Summers or Jason Furman or something.

And just ask, hey, are tariffs a good idea?

Is even my goal with tariffs best achieved by the way I'm doing tariffs?

And they'd, like, get a pretty good answer.