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Daniel Kokotajlo

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
617 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

This is clearly not a sustainable gambit on OpenAI's behalf.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And so I'm curious from your perspective, somebody who lived through it, why do you think you were the first person to actually call the bluff?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I will note that I know at least of one other person who made that same choice.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Leopold?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

That's right, Leopold.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And again, it's worth emphasizing that when they made this choice, they thought that they were actually losing this equity.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

They didn't think that this was like, oh, this is just a show or whatever.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I actually don't know.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And how did this episode in general inform your worldview around how people will make high stakes decisions where potentially their own self-interest is involved in this kind of key period that you imagine will happen by the end of the decade?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Okay, Scott, can I ask you some questions?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Of course.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

How often do you discover a new blogger you're super excited about?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Order of once a year.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Okay.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

And how often after you discover them does the rest of the world discover them?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

On the point about, well, there's people who can write short form, so why isn't that translating?

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I will mention something that has actually radicalized me against Twitter as an information source is I'll meet, and this has happened multiple times, I'll meet somebody who seems to be an interesting poster, has funny, seemingly insightful posts on Twitter.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

I'll meet them in person, and they are just absolute idiots.

Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model โ€” Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

Like there's like, it's like they've got 240 characters of something that sounds insightful and it matches to somebody who maybe has a deep worldview might say, but they actually don't have it.