Dario Amodei

It's more annoying when tech people do it.

I don't know.

Let's look at something like the Biological Weapons Convention, right?

Biological weapons, they're horrifying.

Everyone hates them.

Like, you know, we were able to sign the Biological Weapons Convention.

The U.S.

genuinely stopped developing them.

It's somewhat more unclear with the Soviet Union.

But, you know, biological weapons provide some advantage, but...

But, you know, it's not like they're the difference between winning and losing.

And because they were so horrifying, we were kind of able to give them up.

Having, you know, 12,000 nuclear weapons versus 5,000 nuclear weapons, again, you know, you can kill more people on the other side if you have more of these.

But it's like we were able to be reasonable and, like, say we should have less of them.

But if you're like...

okay, we're going to completely disarm nuclearly and we have to trust the other side.

I don't think we ever got to that, and I think that's just very hard, unless you had really reliable verification.

So I would guess we'll end up kind of in the same world with AI, that there are some kinds of restraint that are going to be possible, but there are some aspects that are so central to the competition that it will be –

It will be hard to restrain them, that democracies will make a tradeoff, that they will be willing to restrain themselves more than authoritarian countries but will not restrain themselves fully.

And the only world in which I can see full restraint is one in which some kind of truly reliable verification is possible.