Dario Amodei

Like, you know, I think we might have that country of geniuses in a data center in one or two years.

Maybe it'll be five, but, you know, it could happen very fast.

But I think the diffusion of the economy is going to be a little slower, and that diffusion creates some unpredictability.

So, an example of this is, you know, and we've seen with an anthropic, the model's writing code has gone very fast already.

I don't think it's because the models are inherently better at code.

I think it's because developers are used to fast technological change and they adopt things quickly.

And they're very socially adjacent to the AI world, so they pay attention to what's happening in it.

If, you know, if you do customer service or banking or manufacturing, the distance is a little greater.

And so I think six months ago, you know, I would have said the first thing to be disrupted is, you know, these kind of entry-level models

white collar jobs like data entry or, you know, document review for law or kind of, you know, things you would give to a first year at, you know, a financial industry company where you're analyzing documents.

And I still think those are going pretty fast.

But I actually think software might go even faster.

because of the reasons that I gave, where I don't think we're that far from the models being able to do a lot of it end to end.

And what we're going to see is, first, the model only does a piece of what the human software engineer does, and that increases their productivity.

Then even when the models do everything that human software engineers used to do, the human software engineers kind of take a step up and, you know, kind of they act as managers and supervise the systems.

Yeah, this is like centaur chess.

So after I think Garry Kasparov was beaten by Deep Blue, there was an era that I think for chess was 15 or 20 years long where a human checking the output of the AI playing chess was able to defeat any human or any AI system alone.

That era at some point ended.

And then it's just the AI.

And then it's just the machine.