Darius Dale

speaker

259 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 30 Jul

Darius Dale’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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The Pomp Podcast · The Fed's Latest Move Just Changed Everything | Darius Dale · 30 Jul 2026 podcast

and so when you start to invert things and start pricing them in units of dollars like instead of saying price of s p and one dollar what's one dollar's ability to purchase one share of the s p what is one dollar's ability to purchase one banana at the grocery store or one gallon of gas and you invert those prices you really see the structural multi-decade decline in our purchasing power that's been masked by these academic arguments that money supply has no impact in the real world which again sorry for me using this word again

Ooh, that's a deep question, man.

And thanks again for having me.

Always a pleasure to be with you and your audience, my brother.

So what they will do, in our opinion, is very different from what they should do.

What they should do is tighten with the balance sheet, shrink the balance sheet, scare the market into believing that they are serious

with regards to their price stability mandate, but ultimately leave the policy rate alone.

And the reason we say they should leave the policy rate alone is because we have this big multidimensional model that essentially tries to ascertain what the Fed should do over the near term and over the medium term based on the trends and key economic variables, as well as the deviation from the Fed's various mandates.

And that model is essentially saying the Fed should, on net, remain on hold now and stay on hold over the medium term.

Now, going back to where I started this answer, the reason we think the Fed should tighten monetary policy over the near term, it has nothing to do with what's happening from an economic standpoint.

So in our opinion, we think this is all about signaling.

We think the Fed, as we talked about the last time I was on your show, we think the Fed needs to play action pass to set up the run, with play action passing being tightening cyclically and setting up the run, with the run being easing structurally.

It's our belief that once we get the advent of the five task force findings later this year, early next year, that the net recommendations from those task forces will be extremely dovish.

and that is not priced into financial markets.

And so if the Fed pivots from today's inflation problem to a series of extremely dovish policy recommendations, ultimately, that has risk that poses significant risk to the bond market, the long end of the curve.

And so ultimately, we think they should take a step in between of tightening policy just to regain some credibility on inflation fighting.

Yeah, well, look, there's two schools of camp on the balance sheet and one school of thought is a very self-serving Wall Street focused.

Quite frankly, I would say insidious school of thought, which is the balance sheet has no impact on monetary policy or on the real economy.

It only matters from the perspective of financial plumbing, which is the repo market and all the transactions that take place in the overnight and near overnight cash market.

In our opinion, we think that market is the very backbone of a modern market economy.

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