Dave Lawler

Everything's going great.

Nothing to worry about here.

And that we expect him to reiterate that he believes this will all wrap up in the next

two to three weeks.

What is not included in those talking points, although, you know, wait and see at 9 p.m., is any sign that he's planning to massively escalate with a ground operation of some sort or any sign that peace has been achieved.

There's talk of a ceasefire, including on Donald Trump's own Truth Social page.

But at least in what's been released ahead of the speech, we're not expecting dramatic news in either direction, that the war is ending or that the war is about to get a whole lot bigger.

He's got an active Twitter page now, but I don't think that's a sign of life.

No, we have not seen him poke his head out.

Yeah, so the case for victory will depend on what Iran does next.

If they can get a deal to, and again, this is back to status quo ante, but if they can get Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire, Trump keeps out the possibility that if they move to take that uranium, we could strike them again in future.

So we've got that in a box and we've taken out their Navy and Air Force and missiles, et cetera.

That would be how he would

claim victory.

I'm not sure that every American would be convinced that that is victory.

I think it's a lot harder if the strait remains closed, right?

I mean, you have a massive economic problem that did not exist before the war, that exists as a result of the war, and then the U.S.

pulls out, leaves it up to our allies to solve it, as Trump has said he might do, and then still tries to claim that this was all

a great thing and we have resolved it successfully.

I think, again, if the Strait remains closed, it's very difficult to see how Trump makes a compelling case that the U.S.