David E. Sanger

So we're about to discover how brittle this regime is and whether it's got the resilience to bounce back from what was clearly a huge blow and one they probably should have prepared for better.

You know, President Trump, in talking about this, is not discussing a very protracted operation.

He said on Saturday, when some reporters put the question to him, that he thinks he might just pause after a couple of days, particularly now that Khamenei is dead.

But, you know, the key to this for President Trump is that the U.S.

is not sending in ground troops and therefore he tells his MAGA base this isn't going to be a forever war or at least not one in which the U.S.

is taking casualties.

But, of course, without boots on the ground, you don't have very much control over what happens.

You know, in modern history, I can't think of an example in which we've brought about regime change and certainly one in which we've managed to control it with simply air power.

You know, at the core of your question, Rachel, is one of the great unknowns, which is can Iran learn anything from Venezuela?

And is the Venezuela example one that would even apply in a country of 92 million people?

You know, in Venezuela, they took out the leader but left the structure.

In Iran, it's really hard for me to understand how you would get away with doing that.

Because the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps...

the besieged militia that puts down the protests in the streets, they are the core of the Iranian power structure.

And it's almost impossible to imagine right now living with them still in power and just removing the very top.

Well, that's possible, but there are so many other possibilities that you can't live in the thought that it's even likely.

We've got a regime here that is in control of the guns.

We've got exiles who want to come back and take power.

You have the people on the street who envision a different Iran, but may not envision the same kind of Iran.

That's all the formula for the possibility of civil war.