David Gurra

speaker

2,056 appearances 266 recordings 8 series first heard May 2025 last heard 5 Jun

David Gurra’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 265 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 132.

Appearances

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Bloomberg Tech · Meta to Spend Billions on AMD Gear, AI Scare Trade Continues · 24 Feb 2026 podcast

Critics call it unregulated gambling, and it's today's Big Take Deep Dive.

I'm pleased to say Bloomberg contributor Chris Beam is here to talk us through it.

It is a wonderful deep dive.

And just as we think about the State of the Union, how has the idea of regulating this changed in the years?

So currently, the status quo is that prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC.

And the reason is that they technically offer what are called event contracts, and event contracts are derivatives.

And so the CFTC argues that falls under their purview.

Now, there's a lot of people who disagree with the CFTC, state gambling regulators, a lot of casinos and other members of the gambling industry.

Funny that.

argue, yes, that prediction markets should actually count as gambling and therefore be regulated by the states.

How good are prediction markets at predicting the future?

So it depends what kind of market you're talking about.

A lot of scholars have looked at political markets and prediction markets to predict elections and have overall found that prediction markets are more accurate than polling and certainly more accurate than you or me or any individual trying to prognosticate about elections.

What's interesting, though, is that those markets become less accurate the smaller they are.

So a presidential election market could be quite accurate, but then once you get down to more state and local races, when there's less liquidity, that's going to be less accurate.

I mean, some of the bets that we see are extraordinary.

I mean, I don't know how much liquidity there is on whether Jesus Christ is going to return in the next couple of years, but that's literally something you can go and place a wager or at least a prediction on using these markets.

How have the companies themselves, Calcium, Polymarket, navigated what has been thrust into really now success, but also backlash at the same time and worries about insider trading in this?

Yeah, the companies have taken different approaches.

Kalshi has really tried to position itself as the adult in the room.

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