David Shor

I'm glad you asked. I'm the co-founder of a research firm called Blue Rose Research. We did 26 million interviews last year. We have a team of about 45 people, machine learning engineers, software engineers from companies like Google. And we've done a lot of work to try to figure out what actually happened last year.

I'm glad you asked. I'm the co-founder of a research firm called Blue Rose Research. We did 26 million interviews last year. We have a team of about 45 people, machine learning engineers, software engineers from companies like Google. And we've done a lot of work to try to figure out what actually happened last year.

The fundamental problem with survey research is just that people who answer surveys are really weird. There's kind of two ways that you can try to fix that. One is that you could try to get a normal representative set of people. That's just impossible in today's day and age. And the other is that you can just try to collect a lot of information and

The fundamental problem with survey research is just that people who answer surveys are really weird. There's kind of two ways that you can try to fix that. One is that you could try to get a normal representative set of people. That's just impossible in today's day and age. And the other is that you can just try to collect a lot of information and

So that you can, you know, adjust for how weird they are. You know, the reason I feel fairly confident about this is just, you know, in our work, every time we make any change, you know, to any part of our system, you know, we go back and back test and see how it affects accuracy across, you know, every other election that we've ever surveyed.

So that you can, you know, adjust for how weird they are. You know, the reason I feel fairly confident about this is just, you know, in our work, every time we make any change, you know, to any part of our system, you know, we go back and back test and see how it affects accuracy across, you know, every other election that we've ever surveyed.

We can't be fully confident about any particular thing that we say. A lot of the data isn't back yet. But I think that there's enough data to tell a coherent story. And there's the 26 million survey respondents of 8 million unique people. There's precinct and county-level election results. We're also going to try to tie together all of the external data that other people have done.

We can't be fully confident about any particular thing that we say. A lot of the data isn't back yet. But I think that there's enough data to tell a coherent story. And there's the 26 million survey respondents of 8 million unique people. There's precinct and county-level election results. We're also going to try to tie together all of the external data that other people have done.

And what I'll say about this election is that our forecasts this cycle were very accurate. Our overall error was about a third of a percent nationally. And I think that most of the things that we thought would happen did bear out. And, you know, just I do want to spend a second to answer, you know, something that you had asked a second ago, which is just like, why look at survey data?

And what I'll say about this election is that our forecasts this cycle were very accurate. Our overall error was about a third of a percent nationally. And I think that most of the things that we thought would happen did bear out. And, you know, just I do want to spend a second to answer, you know, something that you had asked a second ago, which is just like, why look at survey data?

But I think that, you know, super politically engaged people are overrepresented at every single step of the political process. And I think that the only point other than election day when regular people get a say is in polls. So I take that point.

But I think that, you know, super politically engaged people are overrepresented at every single step of the political process. And I think that the only point other than election day when regular people get a say is in polls. So I take that point.

All right. So first, you know, I'm just going to start with this slide over here that just looks at support for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020 and 2024 by race and ideology. In 2016, Democrats got 81 percent of Hispanic moderates. And in 2024, Democrats got 58% of Hispanic moderates. That's only about 7% more than the 52% that they got of white moderates.

All right. So first, you know, I'm just going to start with this slide over here that just looks at support for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020 and 2024 by race and ideology. In 2016, Democrats got 81 percent of Hispanic moderates. And in 2024, Democrats got 58% of Hispanic moderates. That's only about 7% more than the 52% that they got of white moderates.

I think the main story with respect to this is just a continuation of the trends that we saw four years ago. That basically, throughout the entire Trump campaign, we've seen this racial depolarization.

I think the main story with respect to this is just a continuation of the trends that we saw four years ago. That basically, throughout the entire Trump campaign, we've seen this racial depolarization.

I think that a lot of political analysis in America has been, you know, really centered around viewing everything through a very America-centric lens. Because there's this story in American politics. Like, if you want to understand 20th century American politics, then the big story is that there was this giant Southern realignment in 1964. And then... Driven by the Civil Rights Act.

I think that a lot of political analysis in America has been, you know, really centered around viewing everything through a very America-centric lens. Because there's this story in American politics. Like, if you want to understand 20th century American politics, then the big story is that there was this giant Southern realignment in 1964. And then... Driven by the Civil Rights Act.

Yeah, driven by the Civil Rights Act. And that carried forward. It took a really long time, you know, for that to really work its way through down ballot. And so I think it was really tempting for American political scientists and kind of a lot of the, you know, more detail-oriented American political pundits to just kind of see everything.

Yeah, driven by the Civil Rights Act. And that carried forward. It took a really long time, you know, for that to really work its way through down ballot. And so I think it was really tempting for American political scientists and kind of a lot of the, you know, more detail-oriented American political pundits to just kind of see everything.