David Shor
speaker
146 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard Mar 2025
David Shor’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And so as a result of these changes, this has really reversed a decades-long truism in American politics, where for the longest time, Democrats have said, and it's been true, that if everybody votes, we win, and that higher turnout is good for Democrats. And this is the first cycle where that definitively became the opposite of true. Here, I just have some numbers.
If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted, Harris would have won the popular vote and also the electoral college fairly easily. While if everyone had voted, you know, Trump would have won the popular vote by nearly five points.
And, you know, generally what you see now is that every measure of socioeconomic status and political engagement is just monotonically related to your chance of liking Trump.
Oh, yeah, sorry.
I'm the problem. But it's basically just that even the lowest political engagement categories, the lowest education categories, you know, the poorer, the lower socioeconomic status, the less engaged you are in politics, now the more Trumpy you are. And that just wasn't true four years ago.
who didn't feel ready to vote for a Republican, but were still mad at the Democratic Party. And so they stayed home in response. And if you just look at the demographics of who these people are, who voted for Biden last time and stayed home this time, they're generally low education. They're fairly politically disengaged.
They're much less likely to watch shows like MSNBC and more likely to watch shows like Fox. And they frankly just look a lot like the voters who trended away from us.
Right, exactly. And that does show up. You know, if you look at African Americans, for example, African Americans who didn't vote were much more likely to say that they supported Trump than the ones that did this cycle.
It's true that overall turnout fell in a lot of the country, but in the battleground states that actually decided the presidential election, turnout was roughly where it was from four years ago. And it just is clear as day that a bunch of people changed their mind.
I think that that's a very reasonable explanation. You know, it makes sense that the people who care the least about politics are going to be the most mad about prices going up. And there's a lot of academic reasons to think that makes sense. And so I don't think it's necessarily true that it's impossible for us to win those voters back. But, you know, I'll talk about this later.
There have been dramatic shifts in the media consumption habits of these people in the last four years. And so it may be a harder problem.
Yeah. So here, you know, we have a plot that we just took from The Economist. And in the bottom, we just have foreign-born population. And on the top, we just have increase in Republican vote share. And, you know, what you could see is there's a very clear correlation. This is by county. This is by county.
And, you know, what you could see is just there's a very clear correlation between how many immigrants there were in a county and how much it increased by Donald Trump, you know, towards Trump. You can see in counties like, you know, Queens, New York or Miami-Dade in Florida, Trump increased his vote share percentage by 10 percentage points, which is just crazy.
And so when we go and we look at the precinct election results, what we see is that in immigrant communities of all races, particularly Hispanic and Asian communities, but Trump even increased his vote share in Haitian precincts in Florida. When we do that, our best guess is that Immigrants went from being a Biden plus 27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024.
This group of naturalized citizens is roughly 10 percent of the electorate.
That's exactly right. You know, our estimates and it's really hard to know exactly what happened. You know, it turns out that working class immigrants do not answer a ton of surveys. But our our best guess is that they swung 23 percentage points against the Democratic Party.
And so the crazy thing is, if you believe this and, you know, there's some uncertainty, but I think some version of this is probably true. Then something like half of the net votes that Trump received came from immigrants. And, you know, this wasn't efficient for him personally. It's one of the big reasons, you know, why the bias of the electoral college went down by so much this cycle.
Because if you look in the battleground states, things swung toward Trump maybe by like half a percentage point, and that was enough for him to win or, you know, one percentage point. But if you look at like the four biggest states where immigrants are concentrated, you know, New York, California, Texas, you know, Trump did extremely well. And so it wasn't very efficient for him.
But in terms of people changing their mind, it was a massive, percentage of the story.
No. Inflation probably played some kind of role here, though, you know, the flip side is if you look in the UK again, it happened the same year. It's just that the incumbent was right-wing instead of left-wing. And, you know, their labor did also, you know, drop with, you know, Black and Asian and Hindu voters increasing.
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