David Shor
speaker
146 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Mar 2025
last heard Mar 2025
David Shor’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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And so I think that there's some kind of globalized right-wing phenomena that's happening. It's hard to know exactly what, but I agree completely. So now I just move on, you know, to the next slide. Here we have Harris support by single age year, by race and gender.
And one of the things you can see here is if you just look at 18-year-olds, you know, 18-year-old women of color are the only of the four that Harris won. Trump narrowly won, you know, non-white men.
It is a real shift. This is the thing I am the most shocked by, I think, in the last four years, is that young people have gone from being the most progressive generation since the baby boomers, and maybe in some ways more so, to becoming potentially the most conservative generation that we've experienced maybe in 50 to 60 years. And so, you know, the next chart, you know, just to describe it.
Oh, thank you.
I agree. This is, to me, the scariest chart in this entire presentation. And again, you know, something I'm very surprised by. So on the bottom, we have age. And at the top, we have the gender gap and support between women and men, you know, for support for Kamala Harris. And so what you can see is that, you know, for voters over 30,
The gender gap was fairly stable at around 10%, which is roughly where it's been in American politics.
Yeah, I think that a lot of people underestimate how recent the gender gap is. You know, historically, Republicans did better. with women than men. And, you know, this was true across most of the West that center-left parties did better with men than women. And, you know, that's changed in the United States in the Clinton era. But, you know, it's been stable since then.
But what's crazy is if you look at people who are under the age of 30, the gender gap has exploded. If you look at 18-year-olds 18-year-old men were 23 percentage points more likely to support Donald Trump than 18-year-old women, which is just completely unprecedented in American politics. Is that abortion? You know, I think it's too early to say exactly what the cause is.
What's interesting is that this is happening in other countries as well. Obviously, different countries have different political systems, but I've seen similar patterns in Canada, in the U.K., in Norway. There's a lot of research, you know, to do here. But it's still very striking. Like a lot of people talk about the Democratic young men problem.
And I think it's still somehow underrated because the actual numbers are just a lot worse than people think.
Right. And I'll say, if you look at the UK election last year, you know, the Labour Party did a lot better, you know, because the incumbent party was unpopular. But I think what's interesting is that if you look at it by age, the Conservatives actually increased their vote share among 18 to 24 year old voters, I think by two or 3%, even though they did eight or 9% worse overall. And so I do think,
It's not just inflation. It's not just backlash to the incumbent governments, though I'm sure that's part of the story too.
You know, I do want to just stress that this seems to be a global phenomena. And, you know, I don't want to over-center the particular things the Democratic Party has done rather than, you know, the broader cultural... Peterson and Tate are global figures. No, exactly.
You know, what I'll say is I just think that, you know, we're in the midst of a big cultural change that I think that people are really underestimating. You know, if you look at Zoomers, there's just a lot of really interesting ways that they're very different in the data. They're much more likely than previous generations to say that making money is extremely important to them.
They are a lot more, if you look at their psychographic data, they have a lot higher levels of psychometric neuroticism and anxiety than the people before them. If I was going to speculate, I think that phones and social media have a lot to do with this. How that translates into partisan politics depends on what the parties do, but I think it's a big shift.
Yeah, I agree with that entirely. Online communities are way more gender segregated than offline communities are. And so in that respect, it should be unsurprising that suddenly shifting a bunch of young people's social worlds to be entirely online all at once caused the political situation to change.
You know, I have to admit, I was one of those liberals four years ago, and it seems like I was wrong. You know, the future has a way of surprising us. You know, the flip side of this is that Democrats made a bunch of gains among old voters, and I'm sure that they'll be happy that they did two years from now in the midterms.
But if we don't do anything about this, then this problem could become very bad. And so now I'm just going to move over to a little less descriptive and just kind of talking about how this happened. So right here I have this slide. This is very simple. This is just showing exit poll favorability for the Democratic and Republican presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024.
And, you know, I think it's just really important to ground any discussion of the election with the simple fact that Donald Trump was just as unpopular on Election Day last year as he was in 2020 and maybe even a little bit more unpopular. But what changed is that Biden had a net favorability rating of plus six and Harris had a net favorability rating of minus six.
And that's why we see this chart. I think the best explanation for why Kamala Harris was unpopular is in this next slide, which is just that... The Biden administration was extremely unpopular for most of its term. You know, they saw their approval fall off a cliff after Afghanistan, and then it dropped further as inflation and immigration and the budget fights all happened in the fall.
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