David Shor

And so as a result of these changes, this has really reversed a decades-long truism in American politics, where for the longest time, Democrats have said, and it's been true, that if everybody votes, we win, and that higher turnout is good for Democrats. And this is the first cycle where that definitively became the opposite of true. Here, I just have some numbers.

And so as a result of these changes, this has really reversed a decades-long truism in American politics, where for the longest time, Democrats have said, and it's been true, that if everybody votes, we win, and that higher turnout is good for Democrats. And this is the first cycle where that definitively became the opposite of true. Here, I just have some numbers.

If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted, Harris would have won the popular vote and also the electoral college fairly easily. While if everyone had voted, you know, Trump would have won the popular vote by nearly five points.

If only people who had voted in 2022 had voted, Harris would have won the popular vote and also the electoral college fairly easily. While if everyone had voted, you know, Trump would have won the popular vote by nearly five points.

And, you know, generally what you see now is that every measure of socioeconomic status and political engagement is just monotonically related to your chance of liking Trump.

And, you know, generally what you see now is that every measure of socioeconomic status and political engagement is just monotonically related to your chance of liking Trump.

Oh, yeah, sorry.

Oh, yeah, sorry.

I'm the problem. But it's basically just that even the lowest political engagement categories, the lowest education categories, you know, the poorer, the lower socioeconomic status, the less engaged you are in politics, now the more Trumpy you are. And that just wasn't true four years ago.

I'm the problem. But it's basically just that even the lowest political engagement categories, the lowest education categories, you know, the poorer, the lower socioeconomic status, the less engaged you are in politics, now the more Trumpy you are. And that just wasn't true four years ago.

who didn't feel ready to vote for a Republican, but were still mad at the Democratic Party. And so they stayed home in response. And if you just look at the demographics of who these people are, who voted for Biden last time and stayed home this time, they're generally low education. They're fairly politically disengaged.

who didn't feel ready to vote for a Republican, but were still mad at the Democratic Party. And so they stayed home in response. And if you just look at the demographics of who these people are, who voted for Biden last time and stayed home this time, they're generally low education. They're fairly politically disengaged.

They're much less likely to watch shows like MSNBC and more likely to watch shows like Fox. And they frankly just look a lot like the voters who trended away from us.

They're much less likely to watch shows like MSNBC and more likely to watch shows like Fox. And they frankly just look a lot like the voters who trended away from us.

Right, exactly. And that does show up. You know, if you look at African Americans, for example, African Americans who didn't vote were much more likely to say that they supported Trump than the ones that did this cycle.

Right, exactly. And that does show up. You know, if you look at African Americans, for example, African Americans who didn't vote were much more likely to say that they supported Trump than the ones that did this cycle.

It's true that overall turnout fell in a lot of the country, but in the battleground states that actually decided the presidential election, turnout was roughly where it was from four years ago. And it just is clear as day that a bunch of people changed their mind.

It's true that overall turnout fell in a lot of the country, but in the battleground states that actually decided the presidential election, turnout was roughly where it was from four years ago. And it just is clear as day that a bunch of people changed their mind.

I think that that's a very reasonable explanation. You know, it makes sense that the people who care the least about politics are going to be the most mad about prices going up. And there's a lot of academic reasons to think that makes sense. And so I don't think it's necessarily true that it's impossible for us to win those voters back. But, you know, I'll talk about this later.

I think that that's a very reasonable explanation. You know, it makes sense that the people who care the least about politics are going to be the most mad about prices going up. And there's a lot of academic reasons to think that makes sense. And so I don't think it's necessarily true that it's impossible for us to win those voters back. But, you know, I'll talk about this later.