David Shor

There have been dramatic shifts in the media consumption habits of these people in the last four years. And so it may be a harder problem.

There have been dramatic shifts in the media consumption habits of these people in the last four years. And so it may be a harder problem.

Yeah. So here, you know, we have a plot that we just took from The Economist. And in the bottom, we just have foreign-born population. And on the top, we just have increase in Republican vote share. And, you know, what you could see is there's a very clear correlation. This is by county. This is by county.

Yeah. So here, you know, we have a plot that we just took from The Economist. And in the bottom, we just have foreign-born population. And on the top, we just have increase in Republican vote share. And, you know, what you could see is there's a very clear correlation. This is by county. This is by county.

And, you know, what you could see is just there's a very clear correlation between how many immigrants there were in a county and how much it increased by Donald Trump, you know, towards Trump. You can see in counties like, you know, Queens, New York or Miami-Dade in Florida, Trump increased his vote share percentage by 10 percentage points, which is just crazy.

And, you know, what you could see is just there's a very clear correlation between how many immigrants there were in a county and how much it increased by Donald Trump, you know, towards Trump. You can see in counties like, you know, Queens, New York or Miami-Dade in Florida, Trump increased his vote share percentage by 10 percentage points, which is just crazy.

And so when we go and we look at the precinct election results, what we see is that in immigrant communities of all races, particularly Hispanic and Asian communities, but Trump even increased his vote share in Haitian precincts in Florida. When we do that, our best guess is that Immigrants went from being a Biden plus 27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024.

And so when we go and we look at the precinct election results, what we see is that in immigrant communities of all races, particularly Hispanic and Asian communities, but Trump even increased his vote share in Haitian precincts in Florida. When we do that, our best guess is that Immigrants went from being a Biden plus 27 group in 2020 to a group that Trump narrowly won in 2024.

This group of naturalized citizens is roughly 10 percent of the electorate.

This group of naturalized citizens is roughly 10 percent of the electorate.

That's exactly right. You know, our estimates and it's really hard to know exactly what happened. You know, it turns out that working class immigrants do not answer a ton of surveys. But our our best guess is that they swung 23 percentage points against the Democratic Party.

That's exactly right. You know, our estimates and it's really hard to know exactly what happened. You know, it turns out that working class immigrants do not answer a ton of surveys. But our our best guess is that they swung 23 percentage points against the Democratic Party.

And so the crazy thing is, if you believe this and, you know, there's some uncertainty, but I think some version of this is probably true. Then something like half of the net votes that Trump received came from immigrants. And, you know, this wasn't efficient for him personally. It's one of the big reasons, you know, why the bias of the electoral college went down by so much this cycle.

And so the crazy thing is, if you believe this and, you know, there's some uncertainty, but I think some version of this is probably true. Then something like half of the net votes that Trump received came from immigrants. And, you know, this wasn't efficient for him personally. It's one of the big reasons, you know, why the bias of the electoral college went down by so much this cycle.

Because if you look in the battleground states, things swung toward Trump maybe by like half a percentage point, and that was enough for him to win or, you know, one percentage point. But if you look at like the four biggest states where immigrants are concentrated, you know, New York, California, Texas, you know, Trump did extremely well. And so it wasn't very efficient for him.

Because if you look in the battleground states, things swung toward Trump maybe by like half a percentage point, and that was enough for him to win or, you know, one percentage point. But if you look at like the four biggest states where immigrants are concentrated, you know, New York, California, Texas, you know, Trump did extremely well. And so it wasn't very efficient for him.

But in terms of people changing their mind, it was a massive, percentage of the story.

But in terms of people changing their mind, it was a massive, percentage of the story.

No. Inflation probably played some kind of role here, though, you know, the flip side is if you look in the UK again, it happened the same year. It's just that the incumbent was right-wing instead of left-wing. And, you know, their labor did also, you know, drop with, you know, Black and Asian and Hindu voters increasing.

No. Inflation probably played some kind of role here, though, you know, the flip side is if you look in the UK again, it happened the same year. It's just that the incumbent was right-wing instead of left-wing. And, you know, their labor did also, you know, drop with, you know, Black and Asian and Hindu voters increasing.