David Toms

speaker

276 appearances 2 recordings 1 series first heard Apr 2022 last heard Oct 2022

David Toms’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Orbit - An Hg software leadership podcast · The Pace of Automation: Hg's Matthew Brockman and David Toms talk it out · 6 Oct 2022 podcast

But yeah, we see it in all kinds of things, whether there's accounting software, your markets we think are saturated, and then we see a load of new opportunities coming up.

So yes, we're still definitely very early.

And of course, all these penetration stats you see tend to be, you know, sort of penetration against the existing installed estate.

But what we also know from SAS is it just

Drives a massive wave of adoption by never-never users who, for the first time, can suddenly use software without all the cost of installing and configuring and operating.

What's your what's your sense?

So I think we are definitely through most of the worst.

So from a personal perspective, since about June I've been putting money back into the public markets in a reasonable uh way, at least for me.

So I think we're through through the worst of it.

I think from a structural perspective

the po the public markets are still undercooking the growth opportunity.

and I mean we we spoke at a at a conference a couple of months ago overseas uh about this, about if you look at what's implied by current valuations in terms of the terminal growth rates, you take your today's cash flows and you say, okay, what are those going to fade to over the next ten years?

What's the implied assumption in in stock prices today?

And it's broadly that the software industry growth will fade to about two percent in ten years' time.

It'll fade to GDP growth.

I mean yet we just don't see

any of that in the industries we're investing in.

That same assumption was made ten years ago.

So based on the assumptions people make in 2012, the industry is supposed to be growing at about 2% today.

The reason it's not is why SP software index in the US is now five trillion dollars, not one trillion dollars.

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