David Whitehouse
speaker
42 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Jan 2012
last heard Jan 2012
David Whitehouse’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
What does this tell you?
Thank you very much.
I think it shows that we did enter a warm spell 30 years ago, and I think it shows that the rate of warming of that spell is not constant.
The 80s and the 90s it was warming, but I think that it is structure in this data that shows for the past 10 years the temperatures remain constant.
Oh, yes, that's by far not the only way to look at temperature data.
We live in the warmest decade of the instrumental era.
The noughties were warmer than the nineties, which were warmer than the...
the 80s but that's not to say that you should only look at this just over a long time period say 30 years.
But surely, James, we're talking about global warming here, and the fundamental parameter of global warming is warming.
And if you look at the past 30 years, you have two decades in which the temperature was warming, though not a great deal in the 1980s.
You have the last decade, which it hasn't warmed.
And I think you made the mistake of drawing a straight line between the beginning and end of that period and projecting it forward.
There is a possibility, but remember if we extend the bet to nine or ten years, then there is a chance due to statistical fluctuations that one of the years might be high just to fluke.
So I would say yes, I'm up for double or quits, but I would like to see evidence of sustained warming, which means more than one year, more than one standard deviation above the straight line of the past ten years.
Certainly am.
I don't think anybody really knows what's going to happen in the future.
Should we say £100?
That sounds fine to me.
I look forward to it and I can't wait to see the outcome.
Thank you very much.
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