Deborah Mattinson
speaker
21 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2015
last heard May 2015
Deborah Mattinson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And Alistair Campbell's going to eat his kilt, I seem to recall.
I did.
I was right.
I mean, I was clear that that wasn't based... That was assuming that we had a very close contest and an uncertain outcome, and it was because he had more options available to him to form a government.
We didn't.
I was going to say two other things that relate to that.
One is this sense of the kind of herding of pollsters together.
As Ben says, polls do what they do, but it's pollsters that make the predictions.
And they make the predictions with half an eye on what the other guys are saying.
And they feel very anxious if they move away from that.
Before I knew Servatian had done this, I was saying, I wonder how many people are looking back at data they maybe had two weeks ago and kicking themselves.
Of course it does.
And then the other thing I would say that the media, I think, are culpable here as well.
We've talked about this, you know, the strive for perfection with data that often has been produced quite quickly and imperfectly in some instances.
And yet, you know, it's often published in a way that doesn't talk about margins of error, that, you know, wrongfully compares 1% here or there as if there's a real movement when there isn't.
So we identified five different marginal seats, five seats that we thought would tell a very different story.
They've been selected to reflect the constituency as a whole.
No, it's too close to call.
Anybody that's predicting anything is bonkers, I think.
Actually, if you're asking me who I think is most likely to be prime minister, as things stand, I think you have to say Ed Miliband because if, as I would expect, it's too close to call between the two parties and you end up, for the sake of argument, with a very, very close result, I think that that in the end means that Ed Miliband will be the prime minister because he has more options available to him.
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