Dr. Bret Devereaux

No.

That's not in their operational plan.

But here, Sauron has evidently arrived understanding that, like, I'm not going to take this place quickly.

One imagines he's been preparing this for a long time, right?

The One Ring is forged in Second Age 1600.

He spent 90 years getting into position for this.

presumably securing his control of what will eventually be Rohan, but probably also laying the logistics groundwork and everything else for his attack into Auregion.

So he's prepared to sit outside for two years if it takes that long.

And again, the idea of sieges taking that long is not wild.

The Romans are sieging individual settlements in Sicily that long during the First Punic War.

The Third Punic War, which basically is just the siege of Carthage, lasts three years.

So often, if a siege lasts that long, it's because you're struggling to fully invest the target, and they're still getting supplies through somehow.

Because most cities don't have three years of grain sitting around.

But sieges can take a really long time, especially if you're being forced to wait out an enemy or forced to very slowly degrade their defenses.

So what you're going to do when you show up, you're going to circumvolate the target.

You're going to build a line of defenses, often just literally building a second wall outside of their first wall, but facing inward.

But then Sauron's also got to be worried about Elrond and now Celeborn, who are behind him.

Because Celeborn has sortied out, so he's made a kind of an attack.

And a sortie is an attack where you don't intend to stick around after it's done.

So he has engaged the advanced elements of Sauron's forces, evidently figured out, if he didn't already know it, that the main force is too strong for him to oppose.