Dr. Emma Shortis

You know, we're not dealing with good faith actors on any of the sides involved in this conflict.

And, you know, they're all pursuing their own interests.

They're all often

brazenly lying.

And so predicting how that will all fall out is very difficult.

But if I had to predict, I would say that the most likely scenario will be a repeat of what we've seen before, that the United States comes in with hardline requirements around Iranian nuclear enrichment that the regime has made clear it will not and cannot agree to.

Trump will get frustrated.

He'll threaten to drop more bombs.

He may well drop more bombs, or he may well shift the goalposts.

It's also possible that with this deal, he's indicating a willingness to make this go away and to just attempt to spin it as a victory for himself and to divert our attention elsewhere.

Unfortunately, there are very credible reports that Trump and figures in the Trump administration are interested in going after Cuba.

in order to give the president an easy victory and another distraction from what is happening in Iran.

You know, unfortunately, it is just true that so much of this is about managing the president's feelings.

Look, I think what this war has demonstrated is just how much the rest of the world, you know, is subject to the president's whims.

You know, this conflict that he started, that he chose to start, has had enormous impacts on the region, of course, and the people who live in the region.

You

And that catastrophe has spread out into the world, you know, to the point where it's had a dramatic effect on the Australian budget.

It's having a dramatic effect on Australian cost of living issues, on Australian communities.

You know, a quarter of a million people in Australia are of Lebanese descent.

You know, this is having an enormous impact on communities across the world.