Dr. Jack Goldstone

There are ordinary people living in the cities.

And then there's kind of a culturally different group of people usually that are living in the countryside.

That's true even in America today.

We've got a red rural area and blue metro areas, right?

For sure.

So there are lots of different groups.

So when you say how bad does it have to get, you have to say for whom, right?

And it turns out that as long as the elites are doing well,

Things can get pretty horrible for ordinary people.

They may even protest with some local revolts and uprisings.

Iran has had either rural or urban uprisings every few years for the last couple of decades.

But even if things get bad for ordinary people, that doesn't lead to a revolution.

On the other hand, if you say, well, how bad do things have to get for the elites?

And that's a little more complicated question because elites are already well off, right?

They're not going to be reduced to starvation.

They protect themselves.

but what they care about is their status, their position, and that of their children.

If some group of the elites feel that they're being squeezed out, that there's a factional fight and they're losing out, or if they feel the government is corrupt or the leader is saving things for his own family and not paying attention to anybody else,

or if they feel the leader is somehow squandering national resources, making systematically decisions that are going to hurt them in the long run.

that may be enough to get them to rise up.