Dr. Jack Goldstone

They didn't see that far ahead.

All they were trying to do is make their government accountable.

And that's often the tragedy of revolutions.

People do what seems the right thing today, but they get enmeshed in some type of bigger international context or things happen that they didn't foresee.

That's why revolutions are generally thought of as not simple, quick events that are here today over tomorrow.

Revolutions are things that people have to fight for and defend.

That was true of the American Revolution.

It's true of the Ukraine Revolution.

That's how the Iranian government sees its own action.

They're defending the Islamic Revolution against Western infidels.

Us against the world is also part of what happens in revolution.

Well, here's the thing.

I'm glad you raised this, Allie, because it's probably the most common misunderstanding about revolutions, that there's kind of a temperature gauge.

And when the temperature gets too hot and people can't take it anymore because they're too poor, they suffer too much, they're too oppressed, they rise up to overthrow the government.

That's simply not how this works.

You have to understand the government as kind of a machine, and the machine has a lot of parts to it.

There's the ruler, there's the administrative elite, there's the military officers,

There's the rank and file in the military.

There are business leaders who have wealth.

There are religious leaders who have influence.